Huff dropped 165.86 and Cossum put up 151.36, so we’re about to hear a lot about how good they are at fantasy football. Meanwhile, Burns won with 80.60. All three get the same 1–0 record, which feels like something Burns should keep to himself.
Bergquist escaped the shotgun by 0.38 points. Congratulations on finishing second-to-last, you fucking survivor. Longoria, unfortunately, we checked the decimals and it’s definitely you.
Caleb Williams dropped 37.26 and Gibbs added 31.10 as Huff won by 80.40, because apparently winning wasn’t enough. Josh Allen and Jonathan Taylor scored 59.26 of Calvin’s 85.46. Calvin, those two did the entire group project and you still turned in a D.
Cossum had seven starters in double digits, led by Bijan’s 27.30, so drunk drafting is unfortunately looking like a legitimate strategy. Viet put up the fourth-highest score in the league and still lost by 27.16. You deserved a win more than Burns did, but enjoy explaining that to your 0–1 record.
Jeanty’s 29.70 and Amon-Ra’s 23.70 got Trey across the line, with a generous donation from AK’s lineup decisions. Jalen Coker scored 29.80 on the bench while McMillan gave AK 8.00 in the flex, and that swap alone wins the game. AK, you had the answer sitting right there and still picked the wrong fucking box.
Walker and Watson combined for 62.30 for Bruderer, while Chase and McLaurin combined for 4.60 for Bergquist. That’s a tough return on two guys you presumably drafted on purpose. Chuba’s 22.20 sat on the bench too, although even your best lineup still loses this one, so there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Burns won with 80.60, which is a score you usually apologize for, and Trevor Lawrence supplied 26.10 of it. Longoria could’ve reached 83.62 with the right lineup and actually won this thing. Instead, Burns gets to pretend his team is good and Longoria owes us a beer video, so really everybody else lost too.
Swift’s 31.90 dragged Valentine to a win despite Bo Nix contributing 5.44 and very little reason to be invited back. Mason lost by 0.32 with Kyle Pitts scoring zero and Goedert’s 21.70 sitting on the bench. Being Bijan’s Biological Father apparently doesn’t qualify you to pick a tight end.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | W–L | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | drunk drafting | 1–0 | 151.36 | 82% |
| 2 | The Treyliban | 1–0 | 117.16 | 63% |
| 3 | Golden Showered in Ws | 1–0 | 80.60 | 35% |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | GLIZZY GOD | 0–1 | 124.20 | 55% |
| 5 | Hoo Kim | 0–1 | 101.16 | 40% |
| 6 | Better Call Hall | 0–1 | 75.42 | 24% |
| # | Team | W–L | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 1–0 | 165.86 | 85% |
| 2 | Monday Night Mustardson | 1–0 | 143.26 | 73% |
| 3 | Hit and Rice | 1–0 | 108.14 | 52% |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | Bijan's Biological Father | 0–1 | 107.82 | 40% |
| 5 | Big Boy 97 | 0–1 | 85.46 | 28% |
| 6 | Tuten on Em | 0–1 | 75.80 | 21% |
Above the line = in if the season ended today. Nobody’s clinched anything.
We played out the remaining schedule 60,000 times and counted how often each team finished in its division’s top three.
Week 1 is fixed at the scores above. The model blends that score with the league’s 2025 scoring average, then uses last season’s week-to-week swings. Points for break tied records, followed by head-to-head.
These are our estimates. With one game played, they depend heavily on the assumptions. Injuries, byes, and roster changes aren’t included yet, and the model hasn’t been backtested.
All 12 teams, ranked by the scoring strength behind our playoff odds.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 1–0 | 115.55 |
| 02 | drunk drafting | 1–0 | 112.65 |
| 03 | Monday Night Mustardson | 1–0 | 111.03 |
| 04 | GLIZZY GOD | 0–1 | 107.21 |
| 05 | The Treyliban | 1–0 | 105.81 |
| 06 | Hit and Rice | 1–0 | 104.00 |
| 07 | Bijan's Biological Father | 0–1 | 103.94 |
| 08 | Hoo Kim | 0–1 | 102.61 |
| 09 | Big Boy 97 | 0–1 | 99.47 |
| 10 | Golden Showered in Ws | 1–0 | 98.49 |
| 11 | Tuten on Em | 0–1 | 97.53 |
| 12 | Better Call Hall | 0–1 | 97.46 |
One week in. Plenty of time to prove this thing wrong.
Ordered by the weekly scoring strength used in our playoff simulations. This season’s scoring is blended with 4 weeks at the league’s 2025 average, so one huge Sunday doesn’t get the whole vote.
Model Pts / Wk is that scoring estimate. Record is shown for context. Division, opponent scores, remaining schedule and playoff odds don’t affect this order. With the same baseline for everybody, the order follows season scoring average.
The model doesn’t yet adjust for injuries, byes or roster moves. Identical strengths stay tied in value, with team ID keeping their display order consistent.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Dashed lines = league average (111.35). Week 1 only. “Bad defense” is schedule luck, not something you control.
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 165.86 | 85.46 | |
| 151.36 | 124.20 | |
| 143.26 | 75.80 | |
| 124.20 | 151.36 | |
| 117.16 | 101.16 | |
| 108.14 | 107.82 | |
| 107.82 | 108.14 | |
| 101.16 | 117.16 | |
| 85.46 | 165.86 | |
| 80.60 | 75.42 | |
| 75.80 | 143.26 | |
| 75.42 | 80.60 |
League rank, week by week
One week gives us a starting point. The lines start connecting after Week 2.
Ordered by record, points for, then head-to-head. Colors stay with each team.
Starting WR, TE, or flex.
Chris Olave
Valentine gets the bounty thanks to Chris Olave’s 182 receiving yards. Won by 0.32 and collected the money too. Mason, you’re allowed to mute the chat for a bit.
Gibbs Me Liberty or Death
HUFF
Tied · GFY + URQ
Points left on the bench
AK · Yeah, we’re bringing him up again.
Largest margin of victory
75.42 points and your first shotgun of the season. Starting the Broncos over the Chargers would’ve been enough to hand this problem to Bergquist, but apparently even choosing between two mediocre defenses was asking too much. Grab a beer and explain how you lost a game where the winning score was 80.60.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
Longoria — 1 owedWeek 1
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.