Gibbs Me Liberty or Death put up 165.86 and drunk drafting had 151.36, so those two are about to be annoying as hell all week. GLIZZY GOD scored 124.20 and still got smoked. Rough start, buddy.
Four starting defenses scored at least 14, which would've been pretty helpful for the guys fighting to stay out of last place. Better Call Hall and Tuten on Em finished just 0.38 apart down there. You guys really made us check the decimals to figure out who's drinking.
Caleb Williams went off for 37.26 and Gibbs added 31.10 as Huff beat Big Boy by 80.40. Josh Allen and Jonathan Taylor scored 59.26 of Big Boy's 85.46, so at least two guys showed up for you. Everybody else owes them an apology.
Bijan put up 27.30 and seven starters hit double digits for drunk drafting, so whatever you did before the draft, keep doing it. GLIZZY had the fourth-highest score in the league and still lost by 27.16. Didn't even play badly, just got a dogshit matchup.
Jeanty had 29.70 and Amon-Ra added 23.70 to get The Treyliban the win. Hoo Kim, you had Coker's 29.80 sitting on the bench while McMillan gave you 8.00 in the flex. Start Coker there and you win this game, man.
Walker and Watson put up 62.30 together for Mustardson, while Chase and McLaurin managed 4.60 for Tuten. Chuba's 22.20 on the bench didn't help either. You could've nailed every lineup decision and still lost this one, so go ahead and blame everybody.
Golden won with 80.60, so send Trevor Lawrence a thank-you text for his 26.10 and don't ask too many questions. Better Call Hall could've put up 83.62 with the right lineup and won. Instead, you lost to 80 points and now we all get to talk about it.
D'Andre Swift dropped 31.90 and bailed out Hit and Rice after Bo Nix gave them 5.44. Bijan's Biological Father lost by 0.32 with Pitts putting up zero and Goedert's 21.70 on the bench. I'd be staring at that shit all Tuesday.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | W–L | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COSSdrunk drafting | 1–0 | 151.36 | 82% |
| 2 | GFYThe Treyliban | 1–0 | 117.16 | 63% |
| 3 | BRNSGolden Showered in Ws | 1–0 | 80.60 | 35% |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | DAWGGLIZZY GOD | 0–1 | 124.20 | 55% |
| 5 | AKHoo Kim | 0–1 | 101.16 | 40% |
| 6 | MattBetter Call Hall | 0–1 | 75.42 | 24% |
| # | Team | W–L | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUFFGibbs Me Liberty or Death | 1–0 | 165.86 | 85% |
| 2 | MAGAMonday Night Mustardson | 1–0 | 143.26 | 73% |
| 3 | HRHit and Rice | 1–0 | 108.14 | 52% |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | MKMBijan's Biological Father | 0–1 | 107.82 | 40% |
| 5 | URQBig Boy 97 | 0–1 | 85.46 | 28% |
| 6 | TOOTTuten on Em | 0–1 | 75.80 | 21% |
Above the line = in if the season ended today. Nobody’s clinched anything.
We played out the remaining schedule 60,000 times and counted how often each team finished in its division’s top three.
Week 1 is fixed at the scores above. The model blends that score with the league’s 2025 scoring average, then uses last season’s week-to-week swings. Points for break tied records, followed by head-to-head.
These are our estimates. With one game played, they depend heavily on the assumptions. Injuries, byes, and roster changes aren’t included yet, and the model hasn’t been backtested.
All 12 teams, ranked by the scoring strength behind our playoff odds.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | HUFF Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 1–0 | 115.55 |
| 02 | COSS drunk drafting | 1–0 | 112.65 |
| 03 | MAGA Monday Night Mustardson | 1–0 | 111.03 |
| 04 | DAWG GLIZZY GOD | 0–1 | 107.21 |
| 05 | GFY The Treyliban | 1–0 | 105.81 |
| 06 | HR Hit and Rice | 1–0 | 104.00 |
| 07 | MKM Bijan's Biological Father | 0–1 | 103.94 |
| 08 | AK Hoo Kim | 0–1 | 102.61 |
| 09 | URQ Big Boy 97 | 0–1 | 99.47 |
| 10 | BRNS Golden Showered in Ws | 1–0 | 98.49 |
| 11 | TOOT Tuten on Em | 0–1 | 97.53 |
| 12 | Matt Better Call Hall | 0–1 | 97.46 |
One week in. Plenty of time to prove this thing wrong.
Ordered by the weekly scoring strength used in our playoff simulations. This season’s scoring is blended with 4 weeks at the league’s 2025 average, so one huge Sunday doesn’t get the whole vote.
Model Pts / Wk is that scoring estimate. Record is shown for context. Division, opponent scores, remaining schedule and playoff odds don’t affect this order. With the same baseline for everybody, the order follows season scoring average.
The model doesn’t yet adjust for injuries, byes or roster moves. Identical strengths stay tied in value, with team ID keeping their display order consistent.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Dashed lines = league average (111.35). Week 1 only. “Bad defense” is schedule luck, not something you control.
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| HUFF | 165.86 | 85.46 |
| COSS | 151.36 | 124.20 |
| MAGA | 143.26 | 75.80 |
| DAWG | 124.20 | 151.36 |
| GFY | 117.16 | 101.16 |
| HR | 108.14 | 107.82 |
| MKM | 107.82 | 108.14 |
| AK | 101.16 | 117.16 |
| URQ | 85.46 | 165.86 |
| BRNS | 80.60 | 75.42 |
| TOOT | 75.80 | 143.26 |
| Matt | 75.42 | 80.60 |
One week gives us a starting point. The lines start connecting after Week 2.
Ordered by record, points for, then head-to-head. Colors stay with each team.
Starting WR, TE, or flex.
Chris Olave
Won by 0.32 and picked up the bounty. Valentine’s having a better Tuesday than you.
Gibbs Me Liberty or Death
HUFF
Tied · GFY + URQ
Points left on the bench
AK · Yeah, we’re bringing him up again.
Largest margin of victory
You finished 0.38 below Tuten, and starting the Broncos over the Chargers would’ve been enough to get you out of this. That’s shotgun number one for the year, so grab a beer and tell us what the hell happened.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
Longoria — 1 owedWeek 1