Gibbs Me Liberty or Death dropped 141.46, which was apparently Huff's way of apologizing for last week's faceplant. GLIZZY GOD handed The Treyliban its first loss, and Hit and Rice knocked off Monday Night Mustardson, so nobody gets to keep bragging about being undefeated.
Viet has two straight wins, while Mason is the only guy still shopping for win number one. Burns is somehow 2–1 with the fewest total points in the league, which should probably be investigated. AK gets this week's beer.
GLIZZY GOD handed The Treyliban its first loss, with Tyler Shough's 23.80 leading the way and another 36.00 coming from the kicker and defense. Even Trey's perfect lineup would've lost this one, so he can skip blaming himself and go straight to being pissed at Viet.
Golden Showered in Ws won with 91.38, the kind of score that usually requires an apology instead of a celebration. AK got 31.28 from Brock Purdy and still finished last, while Juwan Johnson's 19.30 sat behind Tetairoa McMillan's 2.70 in the flex. Start Johnson there and you win, but apparently that would've been too convenient.
Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday finally got Longoria a win, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and George Kittle combining for 53.56. Cossum squeezed every available point out of his roster and still lost by 19.12. Tough to blame drunk drafting when sober lineup management didn't help either.
Hit and Rice escaped by 2.80, with Bo Nix's 24.14 helping hand Monday Night Mustardson its first loss. RJ Harvey outscored Jacory Croskey-Merritt by 2.90 on Bruderer's bench, enough to turn this into a 0.10 win. That's a very specific amount of bullshit to stare at all week.
Jahmyr Gibbs dropped 37.90 and Gibbs Me Liberty or Death beat Bijan's Biological Father by 60.94, which feels excessive against a man who hasn't won yet. Mason left another 33.10 on the bench and still couldn't have caught Huff. At 0–3, his biggest achievement this week was dodging a shotgun by 0.34.
Big Boy 97 made it two straight wins, with Jaylen Warren's 19.10 helping put JB Unit away by 8.14. Bergquist changed the name but left Kenyon Sadiq's 20.00 on the bench while Dalton Kincaid managed 2.80. That swap wins the game, but sure, maybe another rebrand will fix it.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2–1 | 346.66 | 75% | |
| 2 | 2–1 | 345.00 | 71% | |
| 3 | 2–1 | 232.84 | 17% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 1–2 | 332.06 | 67% | |
| 5 | 1–2 | 297.34 | 44% | |
| 6 | 1–2 | 286.72 | 26% | |
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2–1 | 392.64 | 86% | |
| 2 | 2–1 | 366.10 | 74% | |
| 3 | 2–1 | 333.84 | 59% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 2–1 | 325.70 | 47% | |
| 5 | 1–2 | 287.80 | 22% | |
| 6 | 0–3 | 275.30 | 11% | |
The line shows the current top three.
We played out the actual remaining schedule 60,000 times. Results through Week 3 stay fixed. The top three in each division qualify after Week 17. Record comes first, then points for, then head-to-head.
Each weekly scoring forecast blends 50% roster projection and 50% recent scoring strength. The scoring half uses this season’s results, weighted toward recent weeks, plus two weeks at the 2025 league average. Our estimate of weekly volatility now includes this season too.
Next week uses ESPN’s weekly projections with unavailable players and byes removed. Later weeks use season-outlook averages, known byes and current roster depth. A player marked OUT this week is not automatically out all season. Positive outlooks beyond next week assume availability outside byes, without claiming a return date. IR slots stay excluded. An empty position on the current roster contributes zero before blending.
The real fantasy schedule already accounts for strength of remaining opponents. We don’t add the same schedule adjustment twice. All-play record describes results so far and does not count as extra independent evidence.
V2 is experimental. Future pickups, late injury news and shared NFL game effects remain uncertain. We preserve the forecasts and check them against next week’s results.
Model V2. Current rosters, recent form, and a fresh chance to embarrass the computer.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 2–1 | 116.05 |
| 02 | Monday Night Mustardson | 2–1 | 111.26 |
| 03 | The Treyliban | 2–1 | 107.82 |
| 04 | Big Boy 97 | 2–1 | 107.56 |
| 05 | GLIZZY GOD | 2–1 | 106.83 |
| 06 | drunk drafting | 1–2 | 106.82 |
| 07 | Hit and Rice | 2–1 | 105.09 |
| 08 | Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday | 1–2 | 103.52 |
| 09 | JB Unit | 1–2 | 102.37 |
| 10 | Bijan's Biological Father | 0–3 | 100.31 |
| 11 | Hoo Kim | 1–2 | 98.38 |
| 12 | Golden Showered in Ws | 2–1 | 89.54 |
Model Pts / Wk is the average scoring forecast for the remaining regular-season weeks. Half comes from the current roster’s ESPN projections, half from recent scoring. This year’s results get more weight than before, with a modest boost for recent games.
Next week uses weekly player projections. Later weeks use ESPN’s season-outlook averages and known byes, reselecting the lineup each week. That is a roster forecast, not a prediction of future waiver moves or exact injury return dates.
Fantasy opponents and current record do not set this ranking. They do affect playoff odds. NFL byes affect available scoring. V2 is an experiment, and the weights have not been tuned to make the last three weeks look good.
What if you played everybody each week?
Burns is 2–1 with a 4–29 résumé. Somebody check who made the fucking schedule.
| Team | Record | Vs. Everyone | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1 | 25–8 | 75.8% | |
| 2–1 | 24–9 | 72.7% | |
| 2–1 | 23–10 | 69.7% | |
| 2–1 | 22–11 | 66.7% | |
| 2–1 | 20–13 | 60.6% | |
| 2–1 | 19–14 | 57.6% | |
| 1–2 | 15–18 | 45.5% | |
| 1–2 | 14–19 | 42.4% | |
| 1–2 | 13–20 | 39.4% | |
| 1–2 | 10–23 | 30.3% | |
| 0–3 | 9–24 | 27.3% | |
| 2–1 | 4–29 | 12.1% |
Each score faces all 11 other teams. Through Week 3, that’s 33 comparisons per team. Ties count as half a win for Win %.
Burns has had the easiest scoring schedule.
Mason has had the hardest. His own 9–24 all-play record isn’t exactly helping.
Compare the actual record with how the same scores would have fared against every opponent. This describes results so far, not future wins. It supplements the scoring-based power rankings without changing the league standings.
Who the model update helped and hurt, plus a team waking up.
Playoff odds: 35.1% to 43.7%
The new model likes the roster. Try not to make it regret that.
Playoff odds: 32.1% to 26.5%
The new model checked the roster and would like a word.
Longoria’s score has climbed every week. Apparently the apology video came with a software update.
V1 → V2 with the same Week 3 results. These changes come from the model update, not another game being played.
You drafted the points. Did you actually start them?
Valentine: 94.8% captured. Quietly putting the right guys in the right boxes.
AK: 77.54 points left behind. The roster has been doing more work than the lineup.
| Team | Captured | Points Left |
|---|---|---|
| 94.8% | 17.80 | |
| 94.3% | 19.90 | |
| 93.8% | 22.80 | |
| 92.8% | 30.30 | |
| 90.5% | 38.60 | |
| 90.0% | 38.28 | |
| 87.0% | 44.56 | |
| 86.6% | 51.74 | |
| 81.6% | 65.10 | |
| 81.4% | 53.20 | |
| 81.3% | 63.20 | |
| 78.7% | 77.54 |
Captured = total starting points divided by the total highest-scoring lineup available on each week’s roster. Points Left is the difference. This is hindsight, excludes IR, and may require multiple swaps. It doesn’t mean those decisions were obvious before kickoff.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Averages through Week 3. Dashed lines = league average (106.17).
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 130.88 | 93.56 | |
| 122.03 | 90.69 | |
| 115.55 | 103.66 | |
| 115.00 | 107.95 | |
| 111.28 | 116.35 | |
| 110.69 | 120.32 | |
| 108.57 | 110.58 | |
| 99.11 | 95.25 | |
| 95.93 | 118.08 | |
| 95.57 | 103.85 | |
| 91.77 | 131.21 | |
| 77.61 | 82.50 |
League rank, week by week
Record, points for, then head-to-head.
111.64 scored · 111.99 projected
HUFF
HUFF
Other Teams Beaten
MKM
Other Teams Beaten
Points From One Swap
AK, your two starting receivers and flex combined for 12.00, so enjoy your first shotgun of the year. You finished 0.34 below Mason, which is a pretty impressive commitment to being the worst.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
AK — 1 owedWeeks 3
It roasted your lineup. Now we check its homework.
Another 2–4 week. The model has requested that we stop keeping receipts. Request denied.
| Pick | Win Odds | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53.6% | Miss | ||
| 62.3% | Miss | ||
| 60.1% | Miss | ||
| 58.1% | Miss | ||
| 60.6% | Hit | ||
| 57.3% | Hit |
These are V1’s original win probabilities published in the previous recap, before these games. Week 3’s snapshot: Sep 22, 2026 at 06:02 AM CDT. This week’s favorites ranged from 53.6% to 62.3%.
The tracked total covers Weeks 2–3 (12 games). These modest favorites can lose, and this is too little evidence to judge long-term probability accuracy. ESPN’s optimized lineup score projections are a separate estimate and are not used in this win-probability audit.
Week 4 is the first test. Nobody gets to edit their picks on Monday.
| Game | V1 | V2 | ESPN Only |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAWG v. AK | DAWG · 59.9% | DAWG · 60.0% | DAWG · 55.0% |
| Matt v. GFY | GFY · 58.7% | GFY · 51.9% | Matt · 56.8% |
| COSS v. BRNS | COSS · 66.3% | COSS · 70.9% | COSS · 71.0% |
| MAGA v. MKM | MAGA · 64.7% | MAGA · 59.4% | MKM · 52.1% |
| URQ v. HR | URQ · 51.3% | URQ · 50.8% | HR · 50.6% |
| UNIT v. HUFF | HUFF · 66.8% | HUFF · 68.4% | HUFF · 64.9% |
Favored team and win odds. V1 is the old model. V2 adds roster forecasts and recent form. ESPN Only uses the optimized lineup totals with our uncertainty model, not ESPN’s own win percentages.
Next Tuesday we’ll compare score errors, pick accuracy, Brier score and log loss using these saved forecasts. Lower errors are better. Six games are a first check, not proof that the new model is better.
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.