AK brought 44.52 points to a 122.42-point fight, started Rachaad White on a bye and left Joe Burrow’s 28.88 on the bench. That earns his second shotgun, while Trey finally found the gas with a league-high 136.40 and 35.00 from Tony Pollard.
Cossum and Trey are 5–2 at the top of Division 1, and Huff and Valentine are 5–2 in Division 2. Bruderer and Viet each left a 12.00-point winning swap on the bench, which is nice of them because the group chat needed material. Longoria left 41.70 points behind and won anyway, so apparently the league is grading some of you on a curve.
Cossum’s drunk drafting scraped past Monday Night Mustardson 92.72–85.38, carried by Bucky Irving’s 23.50. Tre Tucker’s 18.80 over Jaylen Waddle’s 6.80 turns Bruderer’s loss into a 4.66-point win. He left the same two guys in the wrong order last week, so at this point the sequel is his fault.
Golden Showered in Ws got past JB Unit 100.10–89.70 behind KC Concepcion’s 19.20, buying Burns a week off beer duty. Bergquist left 0.00 points behind and still lost by 10.40. At 1–6, it would honestly be more comforting if he had somebody on the bench to blame.
The Treyliban beat Gibbs Me Liberty or Death 136.40–109.22, with Tony Pollard’s 35.00 doing most of the yelling. Trey got just 6.00 from Patrick Mahomes and still posted the high score, so imagine how annoying he’d be if he had started Dak Prescott’s 23.28. Huff had the third-highest score and took the loss, which feels like the bill arriving for last week’s 94.20-point win.
Hit and Rice beat Hoo Kim 122.42–44.52, with Jameson Williams at 23.60 and Luther Burden III at 21.70. AK started Rachaad White on a bye and left Joe Burrow’s 28.88 on the bench. Even his best lineup only gets to 66.58, so this was less a bad decision and more an entire roster filing for surrender.
Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday beat Turnaround Time 108.44–76.48 with Drake Maye’s 27.44 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 26.80. Longoria left another 41.70 points on the bench and still won by 31.96. Mason followed last week’s 74.82 with 76.48, so technically the turnaround is happening, just at a speed normally reserved for airport Wi-Fi.
Big Boy 97 edged GLIZZY GOD 106.96–101.62, with Jonathan Taylor’s 18.00 leading Calvin’s starters. Viet started Patriots D/ST for −1.00 while Vikings D/ST put up 11.00 on his bench, a swap that makes him a 6.66-point winner. The defense really did lose him the game, but unfortunately he was also in charge of picking it.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5–2 | 772.38 | 86% | |
| 2 | 5–2 | 766.78 | 75% | |
| 3 | 4–3 | 793.76 | 67% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 4–3 | 757.10 | 62% | |
| 5 | 3–4 | 568.00 | 7% | |
| 6 | 2–5 | 621.42 | 2% | |
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5–2 | 887.58 | 98% | |
| 2 | 5–2 | 796.84 | 88% | |
| 3 | 4–3 | 761.42 | 61% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 3–4 | 784.40 | 51% | |
| 5 | 1–6 | 682.58 | 1% | |
| 6 | 1–6 | 625.90 | 0% | |
The line shows the current top three.
We played out the actual remaining schedule 60,000 times. Results through Week 7 stay fixed. The top three in each division qualify after Week 17. Record comes first, then points for, then head-to-head.
When a complete roster projection is available, each weekly scoring forecast blends 50% roster projection and 50% recent scoring strength. A missing next-week lineup total falls back to recent scoring strength alone. The scoring half uses this season’s results, weighted toward recent weeks, plus two weeks at the 2025 league average. Our estimate of weekly volatility now includes this season too.
Next week uses ESPN’s weekly projections with unavailable players and byes removed. Later weeks use season-outlook averages, known byes and current roster depth. A player marked OUT this week is not automatically out all season. Positive outlooks beyond next week assume availability outside byes, without claiming a return date. IR slots stay excluded. An empty position on the current roster contributes zero before blending.
The real fantasy schedule already accounts for strength of remaining opponents. We don’t add the same schedule adjustment twice. All-play record describes results so far and does not count as extra independent evidence.
V2 is experimental. Future pickups, late injury news and shared NFL game effects remain uncertain. We preserve the forecasts and check them against next week’s results.
Division 2 leads the scoring. The win column has something to say.
Division 2 still scores more, 108.06 to 101.89 per team per week. Division 1 won another cross-division week 4–2 and now leads those games 8–4. Division 2 can keep winning the spreadsheet while Division 1 asks which column gives out actual wins.
52.6% vs. everyone (243–219)
47.4% vs. everyone (219–243)
+6.17 points per team per week for Division 2 · 6.1% higher
Average points per team
Across 2 cross-division weeks. Scoring more and winning the meetings are different receipts. Expect both sides to bring whichever one makes them look better.
Final scores through Week 7. Division averages divide total points by teams and completed weeks. The bars share a zero baseline and the same scale.
“Vs. everyone” compares each team’s weekly score with all 11 other teams. Ties count as half a win. Head-to-head counts only games between the two divisions. Teams are grouped by their current ESPN division.
Model V2. Current rosters, recent form, and a fresh chance to embarrass the computer.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 5–2 | 119.82 |
| 02 | Hit and Rice | 5–2 | 113.22 |
| 03 | drunk drafting | 5–2 | 109.66 |
| 04 | Monday Night Mustardson | 3–4 | 108.92 |
| 05 | Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday | 4–3 | 108.40 |
| 06 | GLIZZY GOD | 4–3 | 107.84 |
| 07 | Big Boy 97 | 4–3 | 107.47 |
| 08 | The Treyliban | 5–2 | 105.35 |
| 09 | JB Unit | 1–6 | 96.56 |
| 10 | Golden Showered in Ws | 3–4 | 94.32 |
| 11 | Hoo Kim | 2–5 | 93.58 |
| 12 | Turnaround Time | 1–6 | 91.81 |
Model Pts / Wk is the average scoring forecast for the remaining regular-season weeks. Half comes from the current roster’s ESPN projections, half from recent scoring. This year’s results get more weight than before, with a modest boost for recent games.
Next week uses weekly player projections. Later weeks use ESPN’s season-outlook averages and known byes, reselecting the lineup each week. That is a roster forecast, not a prediction of future waiver moves or exact injury return dates.
Fantasy opponents and current record do not set this ranking. They do affect playoff odds. NFL byes affect available scoring. V2 is an experiment, and the weights have not been tuned to make the last three weeks look good.
What if you played everybody each week?
Cossum is 5–2 with a 43–34 all-play record. His 92.72 beat only four other teams this week, but Bruderer helpfully brought 85.38. First in the division, fifth from the bottom on the weekly scoreboard. Take the win and leave quietly.
| Team | Record | Vs. Everyone | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5–2 | 55–22 | 71.4% | |
| 5–2 | 54–23 | 70.1% | |
| 4–3 | 53–24 | 68.8% | |
| 3–4 | 47–30 | 61.0% | |
| 5–2 | 46–31 | 59.7% | |
| 4–3 | 44–33 | 57.1% | |
| 5–2 | 43–34 | 55.8% | |
| 4–3 | 41–36 | 53.2% | |
| 1–6 | 29–48 | 37.7% | |
| 2–5 | 22–55 | 28.6% | |
| 1–6 | 17–60 | 22.1% | |
| 3–4 | 11–66 | 14.3% |
Each score faces all 11 other teams. Through Week 7, that’s 77 comparisons per team. Ties count as half a win for Win %.
Burns has faced 93.19 points per week, the softest scoring schedule in the league. He is 3–4 despite an 11–66 all-play record. Whoever made this schedule deserves a cut of his winnings.
Mason’s opponents average 117.28, the highest in the league. His own 17–60 all-play record says the schedule is only part of the problem. AK being worse this week does not count as improvement.
Compare the actual record with how the same scores would have fared against every opponent. This describes results so far, not future wins. It supplements the scoring-based power rankings without changing the league standings.
The biggest playoff swings, plus a score trend worth watching.
Playoff odds: 42.6% to 61.0%
Calvin’s 5.34-point win moved him to 4–3 and back above the current Division 2 cut. His playoff odds jumped from 42.6% to 61.0%. A Vikings start from Viet would have made this a very different paragraph.
Playoff odds: 74.0% to 51.2%
Bruderer lost by 7.34, left a 12.00-point fix on the bench, and watched his playoff odds fall from 74.0% to 51.2%. Same V2 weights, fresh results and rosters. The computer has apparently seen this episode too.
Longoria has won four of his last five and climbed to 4–3. He also left 41.70 points on the bench this week, so apparently the plan is to improve while making it look accidental.
Odds movement since last week’s published recap. Same V2 weights, fresh results and roster snapshots. These are estimates, not clinching scenarios.
You drafted the points. Did you actually start them?
Valentine has captured 94.3% of the points available in his best lineups this season, the best mark in the league. Calvin left just 0.54 behind this week and needed almost all of what he started.
Longoria left a league-high 41.70 points behind this week and still won. His best lineup totals 150.14, which takes several changes. AK has left 140.60 behind across seven weeks and would like this table removed.
| Team | Captured | Points Left |
|---|---|---|
| 94.3% | 48.50 | |
| 93.7% | 59.20 | |
| 93.5% | 53.02 | |
| 90.9% | 79.68 | |
| 90.4% | 80.72 | |
| 89.8% | 87.50 | |
| 87.7% | 109.90 | |
| 87.7% | 95.50 | |
| 87.1% | 112.26 | |
| 83.8% | 109.60 | |
| 83.4% | 124.72 | |
| 81.5% | 140.60 |
Captured = total starting points divided by the total highest-scoring lineup available on each week’s roster. Points Left is the difference. This is hindsight, excludes IR, and may require multiple swaps. It doesn’t mean those decisions were obvious before kickoff.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Averages through Week 7. Dashed lines = league average (104.98).
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 126.80 | 105.49 | |
| 113.83 | 102.91 | |
| 113.39 | 109.80 | |
| 112.06 | 100.79 | |
| 110.34 | 99.38 | |
| 109.54 | 103.33 | |
| 108.77 | 111.92 | |
| 108.16 | 96.97 | |
| 97.51 | 111.90 | |
| 89.41 | 117.28 | |
| 88.77 | 106.77 | |
| 81.14 | 93.19 |
League rank, week by week
Record, points for, then head-to-head.
GFY
GFY
MAGA + MKM
Points From One Swap
AK
Largest margin of victory
AK, 44.52 earns shotgun No. 2, and Week 3 is still on your tab. You started Rachaad White on a bye and left Joe Burrow’s 28.88 on the bench, but even your 66.58-point best lineup was last, so this apology needs to cover the entire roster.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
AK — 2 owedWeeks 3, 7
Mason — 1 owedWeeks 6
It roasted your lineup. Now we check its homework.
V2 went 3–3 for the third straight week, which is starting to look less like progress and more like a personality. V1 managed 2–4 and ESPN Best Available went 1–5, so the bar was underground. V2’s score and probability errors were a little better this week, but it is 14–10 across four prospective weeks and tied with V1 over that same span. Twenty-four games are still a small sample. Nobody gets a parade.
Original V1 record: 16–14 before Week 7, now 18–18 across Weeks 2–7. V2’s separate prospective record begins in Week 4. No earlier picks are credited to V2.
V2’s prospective record: 14–10 across Weeks 4–7. These forecasts were saved before kickoff. This is still a small sample.
| Pick | Win Odds | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Miss | ||
| 63.7% | Miss | ||
| 66.7% | Miss | ||
| 66.4% | Hit | ||
| 69.0% | Hit | ||
| 50.8% | Hit |
Week 7. Saved forecasts graded against actual results.
| Model | Picks | Avg. Score Error | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| V1 | 2/6 | 17.19 | 0.2894 |
| V2 | 3/6 | 16.70 | 0.2656 |
| ESPN Only · Original | 0/2 | 22.91 | 0.3282 |
| ESPN Best Available | 1/6 | 20.35 | 0.3523 |
Lower score error and Brier are better. Six games are a preliminary check, not proof of lasting improvement.
The original ESPN control covered only MAGA–COSS and HUFF–GFY: two games and four team scores. All three original controls went 0/2 on those same games. The ESPN Best Available revision published in Week 6 covers all six games and went 1/6. Compare full-week errors with the full V1 and V2 results, not the original control’s two-game sample.
Average score error is MAE in fantasy points. RMSE gives larger score misses more weight. Brier and log loss measure probability accuracy. Picks exclude 50/50 forecasts and tied games. ESPN Only uses our probability calculation from optimized ESPN lineup totals, not ESPN’s win percentages.
V1: RMSE 22.25 · Log loss 0.7756 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
V2: RMSE 22.13 · Log loss 0.7246 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
ESPN Only · Original: RMSE 24.92 · Log loss 0.8510 · 2 games and 4 team scores.
ESPN Best Available: RMSE 25.45 · Log loss 0.9327 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
Week 8 picks are saved. Same weights, another test. Nobody gets to edit their picks on Monday.
| Game | V1 | V2 | ESPN Best Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRNS v. MAGA | MAGA · 72.3% | MAGA · 67.6% | MAGA · 63.1% |
| GFY v. UNIT | GFY · 59.1% | GFY · 58.8% | GFY · 52.3% |
| AK v. HUFF | HUFF · 76.6% | HUFF · 82.4% | HUFF · 78.3% |
| Matt v. HR | HR · 54.0% | HR · 54.6% | Matt · 60.0% |
| DAWG v. MKM | DAWG · 67.8% | DAWG · 73.0% | DAWG · 50.6% |
| COSS v. URQ | COSS · 51.1% | URQ · 51.1% | URQ · 77.5% |
Favored team and win odds. V1 is the old model. V2 adds roster forecasts and recent form. ESPN Best Available uses the maximum projected lineup from starters and bench, with zero for positions that cannot be filled. Its win odds use our uncertainty model, not ESPN’s own win percentages. The original V1/V2 test stays preserved, and this ESPN revision is saved separately before kickoff.
Next Tuesday we’ll compare score errors, pick accuracy, Brier score and log loss using these saved forecasts. Lower errors are better. Six games are a first check, not proof that the new model is better.
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.
ESPN totals use the best available lineup from starters and bench. Positions with no available player contribute 0.00 and appear in the lineup details. The V2 odds remain the saved model forecast. Its original fallback for an incomplete roster is preserved for the ongoing test.