Calvin put up 144.02 while Burns managed 60.86, so one of you gets to talk shit and the other gets to drink through it. Huff and Cossum followed last week’s 165.86 and 151.36 with 85.32 and 80.92, which should buy the rest of us a little peace and quiet.
Bruderer and Trey are the only teams left at 2–0, with both sitting around 80% to make the playoffs in our model. Longoria and Mason are the only two at 0–2, and Longoria managed to waste a 38.00-point game from JSN getting there. Impressive commitment to making this difficult.
CeeDee’s 31.30 and the Patriots’ 20.00 dragged Viet to a 31.04-point win while Jaxson Dart chipped in 0.80, which feels generous. Burns got 22.70 from DeVonta Smith and 38.16 from literally everyone else combined. Last week you stole a win with 80.60, Burns, and apparently decided even that was too much effort.
Amon-Ra and Dak combined for 60.46 as The Treyliban rolled to 2–0, with Mahomes’ 28.98 on the bench somehow still the right call. Cossum got 17.00 from his kicker and minus 0.10 from DJ Moore, so at least somebody remembered which direction the score is supposed to go. Turns out drunk drafting does have a hangover.
JSN dropped 38.00 for Longoria, and AK still escaped by 2.36 behind Purdy’s 28.48 and Kelce’s 20.60. Starting Bryce Young over Maye wins it, and starting the Broncos over the Bucs wins it too. Longoria, two different answers were sitting on your bench and you still managed to fail the fucking test.
Bruderer got 20.80 from Walker and 20.00 from Schultz to beat Huff by 29.38 and take the division lead at 2–0. Caleb followed last week’s 37.26 with 7.72, helping Gibbs Me Liberty or Death fall from 165.86 to 85.32. New team name, half the points, same guy who writes these recaps.
Chase’s 23.00 and Kincaid’s 19.00 helped Bergquist beat Valentine by 9.16, with Aubrey adding 17.00 because kickers apparently get a vote. McCaffrey and Olave combined for 39.20 for Valentine, but even his best lineup falls short. Bergquist went from barely dodging a beer video to winning a game, so naturally he’s qualified to give advice now.
Josh Allen’s 40.82, Davante’s 35.50 and Taylor’s 27.20 combined for 103.52, which was already more than Mason’s entire team. Calvin won by 57.06 while Mason finally started Goedert and got 0.90 after leaving his 21.70 on the bench last week. Mason, you fixed last week’s lineup just in time for a completely different disaster.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2–0 | 235.02 | 80% | |
| 2 | 1–1 | 232.28 | 70% | |
| 3 | 1–1 | 216.10 | 56% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 1–1 | 206.54 | 54% | |
| 5 | 1–1 | 141.46 | 17% | |
| 6 | 0–2 | 178.44 | 23% | |
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2–0 | 257.96 | 80% | |
| 2 | 1–1 | 251.18 | 69% | |
| 3 | 1–1 | 229.48 | 55% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 1–1 | 214.76 | 42% | |
| 5 | 1–1 | 191.58 | 31% | |
| 6 | 0–2 | 194.78 | 22% | |
The line shows the current top three.
We played out the remaining schedule 60,000 times. Results through Week 2 are fixed. Team strength blends this season’s scoring with four weeks at the league’s 2025 average.
Record comes first, then points for, then head-to-head. These are our estimates, with no injury, bye or future roster-change adjustments.
All 12 teams, ranked by the scoring strength behind our playoff odds.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Monday Night Mustardson | 2–0 | 111.64 |
| 02 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 1–1 | 110.51 |
| 03 | The Treyliban | 2–0 | 107.82 |
| 04 | drunk drafting | 1–1 | 107.36 |
| 05 | Big Boy 97 | 1–1 | 106.89 |
| 06 | GLIZZY GOD | 1–1 | 104.66 |
| 07 | Hit and Rice | 1–1 | 104.44 |
| 08 | Hoo Kim | 1–1 | 103.07 |
| 09 | Bijan's Biological Father | 0–2 | 101.11 |
| 10 | Tuten on Em | 1–1 | 100.58 |
| 11 | Better Call Hall | 0–2 | 98.39 |
| 12 | Golden Showered in Ws | 1–1 | 92.22 |
Ordered by the weekly scoring strength used in our playoff simulations. This season’s scoring is blended with 4 weeks at the league’s 2025 average, so one huge Sunday doesn’t get the whole vote.
Model Pts / Wk is that scoring estimate. Record is shown for context. Division, opponent scores, remaining schedule and playoff odds don’t affect this order. With the same baseline for everybody, the order follows season scoring average.
The model doesn’t yet adjust for injuries, byes or roster moves. Identical strengths stay tied in value, with team ID keeping their display order consistent.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Averages through Week 2. Dashed lines = league average (106.23).
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 128.98 | 80.56 | |
| 125.59 | 100.08 | |
| 117.51 | 91.04 | |
| 116.14 | 121.03 | |
| 114.74 | 126.41 | |
| 108.05 | 106.11 | |
| 107.38 | 111.80 | |
| 103.27 | 110.09 | |
| 97.39 | 126.08 | |
| 95.79 | 124.94 | |
| 89.22 | 92.99 | |
| 70.73 | 83.66 |
League rank, week by week
Record, points for, then head-to-head.
Josh Allen 5 · Jonathan Taylor 2 · Davante Adams 2
URQ
URQ
BRNS
DAWG
GFY
Largest margin of victory
Burns, 60.86 earns your first shotgun of the season, with the Lions actively helping by scoring minus 4.00. Even your best lineup leaves you last by 0.06, so grab a beer and explain how the bench couldn’t save you from yourself.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
Burns — 1 owedWeeks 2
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.