Burns is burnsing through beers with his third shotgun and second straight assignment, while his injury list looks like the guest list for a rehab center. At this point he should stop drafting receivers and start hiring nurses.
Huff dropped a season-high 176.14, Longoria got 39.46 from Drake Maye, and Calvin nailed a 139.30-point lineup. Turnaround Time finally got its first win, while Trey reached 4–1 by surviving Burns in the week’s lowest-scoring game. Huff’s playoff odds hit 97.6%, but the real race is whether Burns runs out of healthy players or beer first.
Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday finally let Drake Maye cook, and his 39.46 powered a 135.26–103.54 win over GLIZZY GOD. Viet’s three-game winning streak ended with Tyler Shough scoring -0.16, which is one hell of a way to hand in your QB homework. Longoria’s kicker added 23.00 just to make this more irritating.
drunk drafting won 100.34–85.40 with Bucky Irving’s 30.50 doing the heavy lifting. Cossum left Isaiah Likely’s 26.90 on the bench while Mark Andrews started with 2.80 and still won, so don’t expect a lesson learned. AK started the Chiefs defense on their bye, which feels on brand for a team now 1–4.
The Treyliban beat Golden Showered in Ws 84.04–80.14 in the week’s lowest-scoring game, a combined 164.18 points of absolutely brutal television. Justice Hill’s 8.80 over Brian Robinson Jr.’s 1.60 would’ve given Burns 87.34 and the win. Instead Trey is 4–1, Burns owes another beer, and the standings look like somebody’s fucking with us.
Big Boy 97 bounced back 139.30–114.12 with Jaylen Warren dropping 33.80 and Josh Allen adding 30.50. Calvin started his highest-scoring lineup, so this week there’s actually nothing to yell at him about. Monday Night Meltdowns is back to his old ways, wasting 58.50 from Puka Nacua and Christian Watson in a 25.18-point loss.
Turnaround Time finally picked up its first win, 103.18–97.88 over JB Unit, with George Pickens supplying 23.50. Bergquist left Denzel Boston on the bench again, where his 12.10 over Carnell Tate’s 1.10 would’ve flipped the result. It took Mason five weeks and some help from the other guy’s bench, but the rebrand finally delivered.
Gibbs Me Liberty or Death dropped a season-high 176.14 to beat Hit and Rice’s 123.16, with Jahmyr Gibbs at 35.20 and Parker Washington at 27.40. Huff left 0.00 points out of his lineup, so prepare for an unbearable amount of self-congratulation. Valentine finished fourth in scoring and got absolutely nothing for it.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4–1 | 547.10 | 76% | |
| 2 | 3–2 | 586.78 | 77% | |
| 3 | 3–2 | 569.28 | 82% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 2–3 | 540.66 | 50% | |
| 5 | 2–3 | 378.56 | 4% | |
| 6 | 1–4 | 476.14 | 11% | |
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4–1 | 684.16 | 98% | |
| 2 | 3–2 | 600.50 | 71% | |
| 3 | 3–2 | 559.52 | 61% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 3–2 | 557.86 | 57% | |
| 5 | 1–4 | 494.56 | 8% | |
| 6 | 1–4 | 474.60 | 5% | |
The line shows the current top three.
We played out the actual remaining schedule 60,000 times. Results through Week 5 stay fixed. The top three in each division qualify after Week 17. Record comes first, then points for, then head-to-head.
When a complete roster projection is available, each weekly scoring forecast blends 50% roster projection and 50% recent scoring strength. A missing next-week lineup total falls back to recent scoring strength alone. The scoring half uses this season’s results, weighted toward recent weeks, plus two weeks at the 2025 league average. Our estimate of weekly volatility now includes this season too.
Next week uses ESPN’s weekly projections with unavailable players and byes removed. Later weeks use season-outlook averages, known byes and current roster depth. A player marked OUT this week is not automatically out all season. Positive outlooks beyond next week assume availability outside byes, without claiming a return date. IR slots stay excluded. An empty position on the current roster contributes zero before blending.
The real fantasy schedule already accounts for strength of remaining opponents. We don’t add the same schedule adjustment twice. All-play record describes results so far and does not count as extra independent evidence.
V2 is experimental. Future pickups, late injury news and shared NFL game effects remain uncertain. We preserve the forecasts and check them against next week’s results.
Model V2. Current rosters, recent form, and a fresh chance to embarrass the computer.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 4–1 | 123.45 |
| 02 | Monday Night Mustardson | 3–2 | 112.76 |
| 03 | drunk drafting | 3–2 | 110.72 |
| 04 | Hit and Rice | 3–2 | 110.12 |
| 05 | GLIZZY GOD | 3–2 | 109.77 |
| 06 | Big Boy 97 | 3–2 | 108.10 |
| 07 | Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday | 2–3 | 106.84 |
| 08 | The Treyliban | 4–1 | 105.30 |
| 09 | JB Unit | 1–4 | 103.10 |
| 10 | Turnaround Time | 1–4 | 98.69 |
| 11 | Hoo Kim | 1–4 | 98.22 |
| 12 | Golden Showered in Ws | 2–3 | 88.66 |
Model Pts / Wk is the average scoring forecast for the remaining regular-season weeks. Half comes from the current roster’s ESPN projections, half from recent scoring. This year’s results get more weight than before, with a modest boost for recent games.
Next week uses weekly player projections. Later weeks use ESPN’s season-outlook averages and known byes, reselecting the lineup each week. That is a roster forecast, not a prediction of future waiver moves or exact injury return dates.
Fantasy opponents and current record do not set this ranking. They do affect playoff odds. NFL byes affect available scoring. V2 is an experiment, and the weights have not been tuned to make the last three weeks look good.
What if you played everybody each week?
Trey is 4–1 after winning with 84.04, a score that lost to ten of the other eleven teams this week. His season all-play record is a perfectly respectable 34–21. Apparently respectable comes with a VIP upgrade when Burns is on the schedule.
| Team | Record | Vs. Everyone | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4–1 | 42–13 | 76.4% | |
| 3–2 | 39–16 | 70.9% | |
| 3–2 | 39–16 | 70.9% | |
| 4–1 | 34–21 | 61.8% | |
| 3–2 | 34–21 | 61.8% | |
| 3–2 | 30–25 | 54.5% | |
| 3–2 | 29–26 | 52.7% | |
| 2–3 | 27–28 | 49.1% | |
| 1–4 | 21–34 | 38.2% | |
| 1–4 | 16–39 | 29.1% | |
| 1–4 | 15–40 | 27.3% | |
| 2–3 | 4–51 | 7.3% |
Each score faces all 11 other teams. Through Week 5, that’s 55 comparisons per team. Ties count as half a win for Win %.
Burns has now faced the lowest-scoring opponents on average. He’s still 2–3 with a 4–51 all-play record. The schedule has done enough charity work.
Mason still has the toughest scoring schedule, but finally got a win. His own 16–39 all-play record says he also needs to give the roster a talking-to.
Compare the actual record with how the same scores would have fared against every opponent. This describes results so far, not future wins. It supplements the scoring-based power rankings without changing the league standings.
The biggest playoff swings, plus a score trend worth watching.
Playoff odds: 29.2% to 50.2%
Longoria ended Viet’s winning streak and picked up 21.0 points of playoff probability. Turns out starting Drake Maye was worth trying.
Playoff odds: 23.4% to 8.4%
Bergquist lost to the only winless team and fell to 1–4. The computer took fifteen points off his playoff odds and probably wants its jersey back.
Longoria went from 75.42 in Week 1 to 135.26 this week. He finally put Maye’s points in the starting lineup and the sirens got a little quieter.
Odds movement since last week’s published recap. Same V2 weights, fresh results and roster snapshots. These are estimates, not clinching scenarios.
You drafted the points. Did you actually start them?
Huff and Calvin both started their highest-scoring lineups this week, leaving 0.00 points behind. Occasionally this league does know what it’s doing.
Cossum left 34.10 points behind and still won. Isaiah Likely’s 26.90 sat on the bench while Mark Andrews started with 2.80. Getting rewarded for this shit is how bad habits form.
| Team | Captured | Points Left |
|---|---|---|
| 95.4% | 26.60 | |
| 93.9% | 36.50 | |
| 93.1% | 51.10 | |
| 90.9% | 60.20 | |
| 90.7% | 60.48 | |
| 88.8% | 70.24 | |
| 88.5% | 70.36 | |
| 88.3% | 75.40 | |
| 85.1% | 86.70 | |
| 84.1% | 90.02 | |
| 81.3% | 109.24 | |
| 79.0% | 100.60 |
Captured = total starting points divided by the total highest-scoring lineup available on each week’s roster. Points Left is the difference. This is hindsight, excludes IR, and may require multiple swaps. It doesn’t mean those decisions were obvious before kickoff.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Averages through Week 5. Dashed lines = league average (107.83).
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 136.83 | 102.54 | |
| 120.10 | 101.50 | |
| 117.36 | 112.63 | |
| 113.86 | 102.39 | |
| 111.90 | 118.52 | |
| 111.57 | 114.76 | |
| 109.42 | 99.84 | |
| 108.13 | 101.14 | |
| 98.91 | 114.56 | |
| 95.23 | 110.03 | |
| 94.92 | 122.36 | |
| 75.71 | 93.68 |
League rank, week by week
Record, points for, then head-to-head.
Drake Maye
HUFF
Matt
Other Teams Beaten
Points From One Swap
Other Teams Beaten
Above GFY + BRNS Combined
Burns, 80.14 earns shotgun number three and back-to-back beer duty. Week 4’s video is submitted, but Justice Hill’s 8.80 on your bench while Brian Robinson Jr. scored 1.60 has sent you straight back to the beer aisle.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
AK, can you shotgun from 30,000 feet, or is that Week 3 beer still waiting for clearance?
AK — 1 owedWeeks 3
Burns — 1 owedWeeks 5
It roasted your lineup. Now we check its homework.
The model followed last week’s 5–1 with a 3–3, so the victory lap lasted exactly seven days. V2 and V1 still picked the same winners, but V2 had slightly smaller score errors and better probability scores this week. Their shared Weeks 4–5 record is 8–4, which is a start, not a reason to trust this thing with your life.
Original V1 record: 9–9 before Week 5, now 12–12 across Weeks 2–5. V2’s separate prospective record begins in Week 4. No earlier picks are credited to V2.
V2’s prospective record: 8–4 across Weeks 4–5. These forecasts were saved before kickoff. Two weeks are still a small sample.
| Pick | Win Odds | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56.4% | Miss | ||
| 65.8% | Hit | ||
| 79.3% | Hit | ||
| 54.7% | Miss | ||
| 56.6% | Miss | ||
| 63.3% | Hit |
Week 5. Saved forecasts graded against actual results.
| Model | Picks | Avg. Score Error | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| V1 | 3/6 | 18.68 | 0.2347 |
| V2 | 3/6 | 18.51 | 0.2054 |
| ESPN Only | 4/5 | 19.61 | 0.1830 |
Lower score error and Brier are better. Six games are a preliminary check, not proof of lasting improvement.
ESPN Only covers five games and ten team scores. AK–COSS had no complete ESPN lineup totals in the saved snapshot, so that matchup is omitted from the ESPN control. On the same five games, V1 and V2 each went 2/5 and ESPN Only went 4/5. Its full-table errors use a smaller sample.
Average score error is MAE in fantasy points. RMSE gives larger score misses more weight. Brier and log loss measure probability accuracy. Picks exclude 50/50 forecasts and tied games. ESPN Only uses our probability calculation from optimized ESPN lineup totals, not ESPN’s win percentages.
V1: RMSE 25.06 · Log loss 0.6591 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
V2: RMSE 24.07 · Log loss 0.5941 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
ESPN Only: RMSE 25.38 · Log loss 0.5490 · 5 games and 10 team scores.
Week 6 picks are saved. Same weights, another test. Nobody gets to edit their picks on Monday.
| Game | V1 | V2 | ESPN Best Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAWG v. MAGA | MAGA · 51.9% | MAGA · 54.0% | DAWG · 57.9% |
| COSS v. UNIT | COSS · 59.7% | COSS · 63.2% | COSS · 58.3% |
| BRNS v. HUFF | HUFF · 84.2% | HUFF · 92.1% | HUFF · 61.9% |
| GFY v. HR | HR · 51.6% | HR · 63.9% | HR · 65.5% |
| AK v. MKM | AK · 50.3% | MKM · 53.8% | MKM · 56.6% |
| Matt v. URQ | URQ · 52.2% | URQ · 55.1% | URQ · 59.1% |
Favored team and win odds. V1 is the old model. V2 adds roster forecasts and recent form. ESPN Best Available uses the maximum projected lineup from starters and bench, with zero for positions that cannot be filled. Its win odds use our uncertainty model, not ESPN’s own win percentages. The original V1/V2 test stays preserved, and this ESPN revision is saved separately before kickoff.
Next Tuesday we’ll compare score errors, pick accuracy, Brier score and log loss using these saved forecasts. Lower errors are better. Six games are a first check, not proof that the new model is better.
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.
ESPN totals use the best available lineup from starters and bench. Positions with no available player contribute 0.00 and appear in the lineup details. The V2 odds remain the saved model forecast. Its original fallback for an incomplete roster is preserved for the ongoing test.