Turnaround Time followed its first win with a 74.82-point faceplant, and Mason gets his first shotgun before the victory lap was over. Burns dodges a fourth shotgun, with Mason and Trey both generously volunteering to be worse.
Valentine needed only 114.90 for high score, seven teams failed to crack 100, and Huff somehow improved to 5–1 with 94.20. Viet, Cossum and Trey are all 4–2 in Division 1, while Bruderer left 31.10 on the bench in a loss he absolutely didn’t need to have.
GLIZZY GOD beat Monday Night Mustardson 105.36–98.52 behind Tyler Shough’s 26.96, a fairly useful improvement on last week’s -0.16. Bruderer left Tre Tucker’s 24.20 on the bench while Jaylen Waddle gave him 4.40. That one swap turns this into a 12.96-point win, so Monday Night Meltdowns has found another way to fuck it up.
Cossum finally put Isaiah Likely in the lineup, and his 20.90 helped drunk drafting beat JB Unit 110.38–98.32. Turns out the guy who scored 26.90 on your bench last week was worth another look. Bergquist is 1–5, and his 107.12-point best lineup still loses, so at least this week the bench isn’t the defendant.
Gibbs Me Liberty or Death followed 176.14 with 94.20 and still beat Golden Showered in Ws, 89.34. Burns got the week’s highest-scoring starter in Trevor Lawrence at 27.34 and still lost. His perfect lineup would’ve lost by 0.26 too, so he might as well leave the app closed.
Hit and Rice posted the week’s high score at 114.90 and beat The Treyliban’s 83.28, with Christian McCaffrey’s 26.20 and D’Andre Swift’s 21.00 setting the pace. Trey’s 84.04 was good enough for a win last week, so apparently he decided 83.28 was close enough. Turns out that scoring plan only works when you play Burns.
Hoo Kim beat Turnaround Time 100.76–74.82 with Malik Nabers’s 22.50 and 14.00 from a Chiefs defense that actually had a game this week. Mason followed his first win with his first shotgun, which isn’t quite the turnaround he had in mind. Kyle Pitts’s 20.50 sat on the bench and AK even started a zero from Juwan Johnson, because apparently this game didn’t need two competent lineups.
Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday beat Big Boy 97 108.00–96.60 behind Drake Maye’s 23.80 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 19.40. Longoria won with Cam Skattebo’s 0.00 in the starting lineup, and Calvin’s Texans defense still found a way to contribute less at -2.00.
Top three in each division make it after Week 17.
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4–2 | 692.14 | 80% | |
| 2 | 4–2 | 679.66 | 85% | |
| 3 | 4–2 | 630.38 | 60% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 3–3 | 648.66 | 61% | |
| 5 | 2–4 | 576.90 | 12% | |
| 6 | 2–4 | 467.90 | 3% | |
| # | Team | Record | PF | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5–1 | 778.36 | 98% | |
| 2 | 4–2 | 674.42 | 79% | |
| 3 | 3–3 | 699.02 | 74% | |
| CURRENT PLAYOFF CUT | ||||
| 4 | 3–3 | 654.46 | 43% | |
| 5 | 1–5 | 592.88 | 4% | |
| 6 | 1–5 | 549.42 | 1% | |
The line shows the current top three.
We played out the actual remaining schedule 60,000 times. Results through Week 6 stay fixed. The top three in each division qualify after Week 17. Record comes first, then points for, then head-to-head.
When a complete roster projection is available, each weekly scoring forecast blends 50% roster projection and 50% recent scoring strength. A missing next-week lineup total falls back to recent scoring strength alone. The scoring half uses this season’s results, weighted toward recent weeks, plus two weeks at the 2025 league average. Our estimate of weekly volatility now includes this season too.
Next week uses ESPN’s weekly projections with unavailable players and byes removed. Later weeks use season-outlook averages, known byes and current roster depth. A player marked OUT this week is not automatically out all season. Positive outlooks beyond next week assume availability outside byes, without claiming a return date. IR slots stay excluded. An empty position on the current roster contributes zero before blending.
The real fantasy schedule already accounts for strength of remaining opponents. We don’t add the same schedule adjustment twice. All-play record describes results so far and does not count as extra independent evidence.
V2 is experimental. Future pickups, late injury news and shared NFL game effects remain uncertain. We preserve the forecasts and check them against next week’s results.
Division 2 leads the scoring. The win column has something to say.
Division 2 is scoring 7.03 more per team per week and has led the scoring in four of six weeks. Division 1 just won the first cross-division week 4–2, so the “better division” speech might need a short delay. Burns’s 77.98 average would like to be left out of this conversation.
53.3% vs. everyone (211–185)
46.7% vs. everyone (185–211)
+7.03 points per team per week for Division 2 · 6.8% higher
Average points per team
Week 6 was the first cross-division week. Scoring more and winning the meetings are different receipts. Expect both sides to bring whichever one makes them look better.
Final scores through Week 6. Division averages divide total points by teams and completed weeks. The bars share a zero baseline and the same scale.
“Vs. everyone” compares each team’s weekly score with all 11 other teams. Ties count as half a win. Head-to-head counts only games between the two divisions. Teams are grouped by their current ESPN division.
Model V2. Current rosters, recent form, and a fresh chance to embarrass the computer.
| Rank | Team | Record | Model Pts / Wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gibbs Me Liberty or Death | 5–1 | 121.29 |
| 02 | Monday Night Mustardson | 3–3 | 113.65 |
| 03 | Hit and Rice | 4–2 | 111.75 |
| 04 | drunk drafting | 4–2 | 110.82 |
| 05 | GLIZZY GOD | 4–2 | 108.93 |
| 06 | Mayeday, Mayeday, Mayeday | 3–3 | 107.75 |
| 07 | Big Boy 97 | 3–3 | 106.04 |
| 08 | The Treyliban | 4–2 | 104.08 |
| 09 | JB Unit | 1–5 | 100.62 |
| 10 | Hoo Kim | 2–4 | 99.14 |
| 11 | Turnaround Time | 1–5 | 93.95 |
| 12 | Golden Showered in Ws | 2–4 | 89.85 |
Model Pts / Wk is the average scoring forecast for the remaining regular-season weeks. Half comes from the current roster’s ESPN projections, half from recent scoring. This year’s results get more weight than before, with a modest boost for recent games.
Next week uses weekly player projections. Later weeks use ESPN’s season-outlook averages and known byes, reselecting the lineup each week. That is a roster forecast, not a prediction of future waiver moves or exact injury return dates.
Fantasy opponents and current record do not set this ranking. They do affect playoff odds. NFL byes affect available scoring. V2 is an experiment, and the weights have not been tuned to make the last three weeks look good.
What if you played everybody each week?
Huff is 5–1 after winning with 94.20, a score that beat only three of the other eleven teams this week. His 45–21 season all-play record is good. This particular win still owes Burns a thank-you note.
| Team | Record | Vs. Everyone | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4–2 | 47–19 | 71.2% | |
| 5–1 | 45–21 | 68.2% | |
| 3–3 | 45–21 | 68.2% | |
| 4–2 | 45–21 | 68.2% | |
| 4–2 | 39–27 | 59.1% | |
| 3–3 | 36–30 | 54.5% | |
| 4–2 | 35–31 | 53.0% | |
| 3–3 | 34–32 | 51.5% | |
| 1–5 | 26–40 | 39.4% | |
| 2–4 | 22–44 | 33.3% | |
| 1–5 | 16–50 | 24.2% | |
| 2–4 | 6–60 | 9.1% |
Each score faces all 11 other teams. Through Week 6, that’s 66 comparisons per team. Ties count as half a win for Win %.
Burns has faced the lowest-scoring opponents on average and is still 2–4. His 6–60 all-play record says the schedule has already done more than enough charity work.
Mason still has the toughest scoring schedule, but 74.82 would have lost to every team this week. You can complain about the schedule after you stop supplying its evidence.
Compare the actual record with how the same scores would have fared against every opponent. This describes results so far, not future wins. It supplements the scoring-based power rankings without changing the league standings.
The biggest playoff swings, plus a score trend worth watching.
Playoff odds: 61.3% to 79.4%
Valentine turned the week’s high score into a win and a big jump in playoff odds. Apparently getting drawn against Huff was not a permanent medical condition.
Playoff odds: 75.5% to 59.9%
Trey’s low-80s routine worked against Burns last week and got him cooked this week. The standings still say 4–2, but the computer has stopped picking up the tab.
Longoria has won three of his last four and is back to 3–3. The Maye pun has officially bought itself another week.
Odds movement since last week’s published recap. Same V2 weights, fresh results and roster snapshots. These are estimates, not clinching scenarios.
You drafted the points. Did you actually start them?
Huff and Valentine both left 0.00 points behind. One posted the high score and the other scraped past Burns, so competent lineup management still comes in very different sizes.
Bruderer left 31.10 points behind. Tre Tucker over Jaylen Waddle alone adds 19.80 and flips the result. The rest of the bench can keep its testimony short.
| Team | Captured | Points Left |
|---|---|---|
| 95.3% | 31.04 | |
| 94.9% | 36.50 | |
| 93.8% | 51.10 | |
| 91.1% | 67.68 | |
| 90.2% | 70.56 | |
| 89.3% | 81.60 | |
| 89.1% | 80.18 | |
| 88.4% | 91.30 | |
| 86.1% | 95.50 | |
| 83.0% | 118.54 | |
| 82.9% | 113.02 | |
| 81.6% | 105.20 |
Captured = total starting points divided by the total highest-scoring lineup available on each week’s roster. Points Left is the difference. This is hindsight, excludes IR, and may require multiple swaps. It doesn’t mean those decisions were obvious before kickoff.
Right is more points for you. Up is more points for the other guy.
Averages through Week 6. Dashed lines = league average (106.17).
| Team | Avg. scored | Avg. opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 129.73 | 100.34 | |
| 116.50 | 102.14 | |
| 115.36 | 110.28 | |
| 113.28 | 101.71 | |
| 112.40 | 112.65 | |
| 109.08 | 113.64 | |
| 108.11 | 100.38 | |
| 105.06 | 102.35 | |
| 98.81 | 113.86 | |
| 96.15 | 104.16 | |
| 91.57 | 118.76 | |
| 77.98 | 93.77 |
League rank, week by week
Record, points for, then head-to-head.
Broncos D/ST
HR
BRNS
URQ
Points From One Swap
Other Teams Beaten
Largest margin of victory
Mason, 74.82 earns your first shotgun, one week after your first win. Kyle Pitts’s 20.50 over Michael Wilson’s 5.20 would’ve put you at 90.12 and left Trey with the beer, so thanks for keeping him hydrated.
The count sticks. Sending the video clears what you owe.
AK — 1 owedWeeks 3
Mason — 1 owedWeeks 6
It roasted your lineup. Now we check its homework.
V2 went 3–3 again, while V1 and the published ESPN Best Available picks went 4–2. The ESPN lineup estimates had the smallest score errors this week, and V2 had the better probability scores. So the computer has supplied several different ways to argue with it. V2 is now 11–7 across its three prospective weeks. That is still eighteen games, not a reason to start taking victory laps.
Original V1 record: 12–12 before Week 6, now 16–14 across Weeks 2–6. V2’s separate prospective record begins in Week 4. No earlier picks are credited to V2.
V2’s prospective record: 11–7 across Weeks 4–6. These forecasts were saved before kickoff. This is still a small sample.
| Pick | Win Odds | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Miss | ||
| 63.2% | Hit | ||
| 92.1% | Hit | ||
| 63.9% | Hit | ||
| 53.8% | Miss | ||
| 55.1% | Miss |
Week 6. Saved forecasts graded against actual results.
| Model | Picks | Avg. Score Error | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| V1 | 4/6 | 10.14 | 0.2017 |
| V2 | 3/6 | 10.61 | 0.1928 |
| ESPN Only · Original | 0/2 | 13.75 | 0.3352 |
| ESPN Best Available | 4/6 | 9.78 | 0.2143 |
Lower score error and Brier are better. Six games are a preliminary check, not proof of lasting improvement.
The original ESPN control covered only AK–MKM and Matt–URQ: two games and four team scores. On those same games, V1 went 1/2 and V2 and the original ESPN control went 0/2. The ESPN Best Available revision published in Week 5 covers all six games and went 4/6. Compare its full-week errors with V1 and V2, not the original control’s two-game sample.
Average score error is MAE in fantasy points. RMSE gives larger score misses more weight. Brier and log loss measure probability accuracy. Picks exclude 50/50 forecasts and tied games. ESPN Only uses our probability calculation from optimized ESPN lineup totals, not ESPN’s win percentages.
V1: RMSE 13.79 · Log loss 0.5844 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
V2: RMSE 15.12 · Log loss 0.5564 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
ESPN Only · Original: RMSE 18.47 · Log loss 0.8651 · 2 games and 4 team scores.
ESPN Best Available: RMSE 13.05 · Log loss 0.6198 · 6 games and 12 team scores.
Week 7 picks are saved. Same weights, another test. Nobody gets to edit their picks on Monday.
| Game | V1 | V2 | ESPN Best Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA v. COSS | MAGA · 52.7% | MAGA · 54.0% | MAGA · 55.4% |
| UNIT v. BRNS | UNIT · 64.5% | UNIT · 63.7% | UNIT · 83.5% |
| HUFF v. GFY | HUFF · 66.9% | HUFF · 66.7% | HUFF · 59.1% |
| HR v. AK | HR · 61.3% | HR · 66.4% | AK · 51.0% |
| MKM v. Matt | Matt · 61.6% | Matt · 69.0% | Matt · 70.7% |
| URQ v. DAWG | DAWG · 54.6% | URQ · 50.8% | DAWG · 64.3% |
Favored team and win odds. V1 is the old model. V2 adds roster forecasts and recent form. ESPN Best Available uses the maximum projected lineup from starters and bench, with zero for positions that cannot be filled. Its win odds use our uncertainty model, not ESPN’s own win percentages. The original V1/V2 test stays preserved, and this ESPN revision is saved separately before kickoff.
Next Tuesday we’ll compare score errors, pick accuracy, Brier score and log loss using these saved forecasts. Lower errors are better. Six games are a first check, not proof that the new model is better.
ESPN’s best projected lineups. Our model’s picks. Plenty to argue about.
ESPN totals use the best available lineup from starters and bench. Positions with no available player contribute 0.00 and appear in the lineup details. The V2 odds remain the saved model forecast. Its original fallback for an incomplete roster is preserved for the ongoing test.